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Market Indicators and Information Mad Hedge Fund Trader Diary John Thomas
Comprehensive Real Time Futures Ouotes From FuturesKnowledge Updated every few minutes and shows short term market direction - change in trend over the day is showing which way the market direction is changing. Shows clear short term direction for all major indices and key markets.Chart .......... Futures List page Quotes and Pivots The charts below have volume, 50 & 200 day exponential moving average and committment of trade lines and are very up to date. Generally this is one of the most pwerful leading indicators. Move up is 'risk on' and move down is 'risk off' for equities or in other words S&P 500 will move opposite to WSD futures. Market Momentum and SentimentBarchart Market Momentum Index Graph overbought sold above 101 and oversold below 99- Over bought conditions < 75% of stocks above 20 day moving average. Over sold conditions <25% of stocks below 20 day moving average. See chart here -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Etn (VXX)-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - See how each of the sectors are doing in currrent maket - Link to page - List of technical turning points excellent for trade confirmation entries and exits Put to call ratio and many related indexes and indicators from Market Harmonics ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (see notes below) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - valuable stock picker for strong moves and event trading strategies Top Ten insider traded stocks Recent Purchases Monthly Report Weekly Report These reports look at the 50 companies with the most insider trading. Insider Trading Research What it does for you Report on Clusters of Insider Weekly Trading Bi-Weekly Trading These pages lists companies with insider stock purchases by three or more different insiders in the past week. Note that sometimes a single insider may report his/her stock trades more than once because he/she may belong to different entities and all these entities have to report. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - find stock ready to move, valuable for high yield options strategies The Street Earnings Schedule Gives you earnings per share historic, actual and forecast Yahoo Earnings Schedule lets you select stocks and add to a watch list and easy access to charts Bloomberg Earnings Schedule Page Lets you search date and covers international markets CNBC Earnings News Market Watch Earnings News The Economic Calendar is a weekly publication of the essential economic events including market expectations, historic data and actual events. CoT charts are based on CoT reports, which are published by the CFTC each Friday at 19:30 GMT. Each CoT report includes a breakdown of each Tuesday's open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have tried a number of paper trading accounts and I prefer Trade Monster. The trading platform is easy to learn and is feature packed for all sorts of analysis including Options trading. I maintain my watchlist there which is very helpful. Open a Paper Trading and Watchlist account at Trade Monster ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Currency Power Indicator charts by Winnersedge trading
On-line Forex Chart The SWFX Sentiment Index can be a valuable tool for intraday currency trading. The Index is based on transaction flow information and is designed to show long and short ratio in the most popular currency pairs. The percentage number of the ratio is simply the amount of longs or shorts in the overall amount of opened positions transacted in the SWFX marketplace. The SWFX Sentiment Index gauges effective speculative interest in currency pairs and currencies, and therefore can be used as a contrarian indicator. The index is updated every 30 minutes.
Pivot point is an effective method of defining reversal, resistance and support levels of Forex market. Most of traders use pivot points to predict daily market price movement.
Movers & Shakers represents the TOP of rises and drops in the financial sector for different time periods.
Movers & Shakers FX publication. It represents the TOP of rises and drops in currency prices for different time periods. Dukascopy: Swiss forex broker provides best spreads, highest liquidity and marketplace for on-line forex trading ___________________________________________________ COT Background Information The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is released weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US every Friday at 15:30 Eastern Time. The COT report shows how large speculators, commercials and small traders have placed their bets in the futures markets in terms of open interest information based on the previous Tuesday, and is an invaluable tool you can use to track the market sentiment in currencies, commodities and stock indices. The only limitation of the COT report is that it is three days late, but that doesn’t mean you can’t still use it as a sentiment tool. There are three categories of traders in the report as defined by the CFTC.
These large speculators are mainly hedge funds, banks etc who trade currency futures just for speculation.
These are people who use the futures contracts for hedging purposes, and these commercial participants are generally exporters and importers who may use the commodity or currency futures markets to take a position that will reduce the risk of financial loss in their assets due to a change in price.
They are small speculators like retail traders One technique to gauge the consensus is to use the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitment- of- traders (COT) report to help analyze the market. It is a report that reveals whose doing what or whose hands the market is in. Many investors who have trade stocks and who have never traded Futures think of it as like “insider trading”. Well, not exactly. This report breaks down the three main categories of traders and shows their overall net positions. The first group is called the Commercials or hedgers, the next group is called the Large Speculators and the third group is called the Small Speculators. It is known that the Commercials and the Large Traders have large positions and as a rule when you trade a certain number of contracts these positions need to be reported to the CFTC. The number of allowable positions that need to be reported varies by different futures contracts. If you compile the data and subtract these figures from the total open Interest that is provided by the exchanges then the balance is assumed to be from the small speculators. The data is taken from the close of business on Tuesday and then released on the following Friday at 2:30 PM CST for Futures only. It is also released twice a month or every other Monday for futures combined with the figures for options. One fact that you need to remember is that commodities are listed by the exchanges they are traded at. Therefore you will need to know what commodity is traded on which exchange. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract is traded at the Chicago Board of Trade, so to access the report every week, type in this address above in your browser, then scroll down until you see Chicago Board of Trade and then click on the SHORT FORM. Then you will see every commodity traded on that exchange and you simply scroll down until you find the market you wish to view the information for. In order to understand the importance of the COT report, it helps to know what the break down of the numbers are and what they represent. The Commercials are considered to be hedgers as I mentioned. They could be Producers or Users of a given product. Due to the fact that they will or do own the underlying product they are trying to hedge their risk in the cash market from adverse price moves. They do this in the futures market and they generally receive a discount from the Margin requirements set for speculators. When a commercial entity fills out their account application they usually disclose that they are hedging. The exchanges recognize that hedgers are on the other side of the market from a cash standpoint and can usually financially speaking support their futures position, therefore they set lower Margin rates for those accounts. Commercials are considered to be the “smart money” or the strong hands because they are in the business of that commodity. They are considered to have the “inside scoop” sort to speak. For example, from having access to internal corporate inventory reports to global production estimates and projected customer needs, commercials have a better working knowledge of the fundamentals. Another example would be for Banks and Institutions, they may have a better idea on the direction of money supply and corporate debt for instance and may want to hedge their exposure on current holdings against an upcoming adjustment in Interest Rates. For the most part they are using the futures markets to lock in prices to produce a profit or lower their costs on the cash side of their positions. The Large Traders category is considered to be the professional trader. The Commodity Trading Advisor or the Commodity Pool Operator who manages a large fund is considered to be a large trader if they hold a certain amount of positions. It may also be an individual trader who holds a substantial position in the market. Traders that have positions over a certain amount of contracts need to disclose those positions to the CFTC. Each futures contract has a different number for it’s reportable limits and just like Margins and can change on a moment’s notice. The theory is if you are a large trader you are committing a large amount of capital to a risky investment and have confidence in that position. You are either a very good trader that started small and built your capital up or you are a professional trader with a good track record. Either way you look at it professional traders with large reportable position limits on are still speculating in the markets with the motive for profit. They are well financed and typically have large amounts of money to defend their positions. The last group is called the Small Traders or speculators. These are regular investors, mainly the general trading public doing it on their own or using the advice from an advisory newsletter service or a broker or a combination of all three. Since it is estimated that 80% or more of traders who enter the markets lose, this is the category that one generally does not want to usually follow. Remember that nothing is a 100 % iron clad guarantee in this business. There is a couple of old phrases that may explain why. First even a blind squirrel can find an acorn and a broken clock is always right twice a day. Even the little guys win once in a while. I have found that a lot of individual investors have a good knack for calling market direction but have a hard time with timing when it comes to entering or exiting the market. The problem is they are usually undercapitalized in the market and cannot defend their positions during periods of volatility. One other scenario is they sometimes refuse to take a profit when the market gives it to them. Due to the very nature of the markets moves some novice traders invest with a buy and hold mentality. For that reason the sheer psychology and emotional makeup of individual investors needs to be addressed before investing in the futures and options market. For some investors managing risk is not as hard as managing a winning trade. Again there are many variables why the individual speculator is often wrong in the markets and looses money. My concern here is that you realize who represents what when it comes to the C.F.T.C Commitment of Traders report. It is also important to understand and to watch the behavior of the market from Tuesday to Fridays close. This can change the interpretation of the numbers as the market participants have had a chance to adjust their positions as the report can lose its importance if market conditions have changed during that time period. What you want to watch for is the net positions for each category and if you see a lop-sided market position and prices are at an extreme high or an extreme low this could signal a major turn around in price direction. Here is an example of what to watch for, if the large traders are net long, the commercials are net short, the Small Speculators are extremely long from a historical perspective or a large percentage amount from an open interest basis. Then to add to this scenario if the market is at an extreme high or has been steadily rising for a good period of time look out, a downside correction could be around the corner. You see, once the data is released, it is like trying to run ahead of an avalanche, everyone is headed for the exit door and nobody wants to be last. At least from the large traders or non commercial category perspective. If they see that the market is vulnerable for a price correction all it takes is a few smart traders to start liquidating long positions and a sharp sell-off could begin. It is important to view the Commitment of traders report to see whose “hands” the market is in. Look for the report every Friday and every other Monday for the futures and options figures combined. Things to Note: - In currency futures, the convention is to quote the foreign currency directly against the US dollar. For example, the Swiss franc is quoted versus the US dollar in futures, unlike the USD/CHF notation in the spot forex market.
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